Bitcoin slides below $76,800 as ETF outflows and inflation fears pressure crypto markets

Key takeaways

• BTC dips lower for a fourth straight day on Monday after losing nearly 6% the previous week.
• US-listed BTC spot ETFs record a weekly outflow of $1 billion, the highest in three months.

Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Monday, trading below $77,000 after declining nearly 6% last week, as persistent spot ETF outflows and stronger-than-expected US inflation data dampened investor appetite for risk assets.

The latest decline marks Bitcoin’s fourth consecutive day of losses, with the cryptocurrency continuing to retreat after failing to sustain momentum above the key $82,000 resistance zone.

Hot US inflation data boosts hawkish Fed expectations

Bitcoin’s recent weakness accelerated following hotter-than-expected US inflation data released last week, alongside stronger US retail sales figures that reinforced expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve.

The renewed inflation concerns strengthened the US dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher, creating additional pressure on risk-sensitive assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Higher interest rate expectations typically reduce market liquidity and shift investor capital toward safer, yield-generating assets, limiting demand for speculative markets like Bitcoin.

The rejection near the $82,000 level also triggered additional profit-taking from short-term holders, intensifying the correction.

Institutional demand for Bitcoin also weakened notably last week. According to data from CoinGlass, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of approximately $1 billion last week, marking the largest weekly withdrawal since late January.

The sharp reversal in ETF flows signals a cooling of institutional sentiment after several weeks of strong inflows that had previously supported Bitcoin’s rally.

If ETF outflows continue in the coming sessions, analysts warn that Bitcoin could face additional downside pressure.

Bitcoin price outlook: Bulls failed to take out a key resistance level

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish after Bitcoin’s price was rejected near the 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $82,289.

BTC also closed last week below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near $78,490, measured from the October all-time high of $126,199 to the February low around $60,000.

The breakdown below those key technical levels has shifted momentum firmly lower. If selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could extend losses toward the major psychological support level at $75,000.

On the weekly chart, momentum indicators remain mixed but increasingly cautious. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipped below the neutral 50 level and currently sits near 35, signaling a strong bearish momentum.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is also in the negative region, suggesting that the bears are in control. 

If the bearish trend persists, immediate support sits near the clustered 50-day and 100-day EMAs below current price action.

Further downside targets include the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $74,487, followed by the previous trendline breakout zone around $70,576.

Below that, the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $68,950 remains a critical level protecting Bitcoin’s broader bullish structure above the $60,000 swing low.

However, if the bulls regain control, initial resistance emerges near the 50% Fibonacci retracement around $78,962, followed by the 200-day EMA near $81,853.

A stronger bullish continuation would likely require a daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $83,437 and the horizontal resistance barrier around $84,410.

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